In 2020, you could say that prepping became relevant again to the average person. People panic bought everything and realized that maybe it wasn't such a crazy idea after all to have a few things stored away. Of course people's assumptions about what exactly they need to be prepared are completely disparate and based largely on assumptions. This article explores some of those assumptions.
The pandemic really got me thinking. How effective can you really be with prepping if you have no community and no close relationships? What is the point if you don't help out the people closest to you? It made me think about all the things people think they need to do and buy.
It made me think, "is prepping just an excuse for people to buy a bunch of crap?" How much money have you spent over the years and how many of those preps have you actually used? What is the ratio? Could you have spent 100 times less over the last 5 or 10 years and still been in the same place you are now?
The thing about prepping is that it never ends. There is always some new fear to assuage. Are you prepared for a mass coronal ejection? Earthquakes? Flooding? A home invasion? An asteroid? Mass civil unrest? Civil war? Famine? Supply chain collapse? Stock market collapse? Interest rate hikes? Inflation? Hyper-inflation? What about a nuclear war with China? A creative person could easily come up with hundreds of scenarios.
Look at the projections of what would happen if Yellowstone erupted. Unless you have $100 million dollars for an underground mega-bunker, you're probably not going to make it. And who would want to live like that anyway?
You are much more likely to need to prepare for: losing your job or a medical condition from a poor environment, poor eating habits, or poor genetics. You're more likely to lose a family member or spouse, get a divorce, or even just get into a car accident 3 miles from your home than an end-of-the-world scenario.
It also made me think about all the influencers making money on fear. There are an endless number of fears and potential threats to your survival. For many, prepping is a never ending fear factory and product purchasing cycle. In fact, prepping is an $11 billion dollar per year industry. Think about that next time someone is recommending a product.
Clickbait and fear sells you fantasies, products, and a false sense of connection. Look at the difference in views on prepping channels between over the top fear videos and the instructional/how to videos by the same channel. There is often a 10 to 1 difference. People are visiting just to activate their lizard brains and their fear response.
How much of your prepping is just a series of fantastical imaginations promoted by influencers that have a parasocial relationship with hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of viewers? Have you ever noticed that many of the so called YouTube preppers are actually living in multi-million dollar properties with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of equipment, vehicles, tools, guns, and preps?
Even the ones who aren't exceedingly rich still seem to have their own homesteads, or large properties. Most people are struggling so hard now that attaining anything remotely close to what those influencers have is nearly impossible.
Have you scrolled back through their video history and seen that 5 or 10 years ago they were calling for the end of the world? This also applies to all the financial grifters out there selling the idea that the stock market is going to crash to zero. They seem to come hand-in-hand with the preppers. Yet these same people also claim that there is going to be a one wolrd currency. So which one is it? Is the currency and all trade going to collapse or is there going to be global, online, integrated network of trade? Right after the Iraq war started the Iraqi stock market went offline. Traders were using a white board, with erasable pens, and a telephone, to make trades.
That should tell you a lot about the world and, as a result, "preparation." Nothing stops trade for long. It is like water. It always finds a way and follows the path of least resistance.
In a hyperinflationary scenario markets go parabolic for quite a while before they crash. Look at the Caracas index chart, for example. Yet, the financial and prepping grifters are profiting from your fear and selling very dubious investment advice. ZeroHedge has been calling for the ultimate market crash for more than a decade now. Their readers overwhelmingly hate Bitcoin, which would have made them insanely rich had they just bought a few thousand dollars worth years ago when Max Keiser was promoting it all over ZeroHedge, when it was at $1.
Anyone who can read an options chain can see quite clearly how much open interest and volume exists for various strike prices on different financial instruments. If your favorite grifter is saying there will be worldwide food shortages and no more wheat in the next year, but there is no open interest for long dated WEAT options, then that tells you that the hedge funds and investors with billions of dollars don’t agree. Only one of those two parties is going to be right. Are you going to trust the grifters on YouTube or learn how to read the options chain yourself?
The grifters have zero accountability for their decades of incorrect predictions.
The other issue is that some of the "prepping" videos on YouTube might just get you injured or killed because their advice is so misplaced. There are plenty of videos of people following bad science. Creating activated charcoal is one subject where you will find all kinds of poorly thought out recipes. The ever popular Canadian Prepper channel features this video about heating your home, or apartment, with a small wood burning stove. He connects the exhaust pipe out a nearby window. He declines to mention the eventual creosote build-up, which will cause a fire. He does not mention that the 90 degree bend shown in the video should be reduced to a 22.5 degree bend, with a rounded corner, as this will allow smoke to vent more freely.
One person says, "the pipe should be at a upward slope. There's is no forced air pump or fan pushing it up and out. So the sloped angle is needed to ensure there won't be a back flow." He doesn't mention that thin sheet metal from Home Depot won't cut it and that you should use double wall stainless steel pipe. He doesn't mention the exhaust's correct distance from the building, or the preferred use of a ceramic tile for the wood plate or the board underneath the stove itself. He fails to mention that the heat from the exhaust pipe will melt the plastic of the window-frame and cause a situation whereby you won't be able to close the window. One commenter says, "Make sure your chimmeny (sp) sections are tight as possible. Many people have lost their homes because a stray spark finds its way out of the chimmeny (sp) in a joint section."
Another person says, "You can't install your ventilation pipe like that. During head-on winds, back pressure can cause CO2 to draft back into the room. Pipe must extend above roof line. Ventilation should be vertical and plumb so that the pipe will naturally draft." Read enough comments and you realize the video's recommendation is a disaster waiting to happen. How many other channels are doing the same thing across other domains?
From an objective historical viewpoint, it appears that many people are prepping for the wrong events.
Do you keep track of what you spend? How much money have you actually spent on prepping? Do you have an inventory of your preps with a detailed purchase history, expiry info, and storage info? Are you storing ammo, food, batteries, and other items correctly and safely?
If you have no community, how will you barter? Selling hard alcohol, beer, tobacco, tobacco related products, food, ammunition, and guns without some kind of license are illegal to varying degrees in many states. If you have a trusted network then this may not be an issue. But the law doesn't magically stop when times are tough. And that also applies to when riots and emergencies are over. Eventually, the dust settles. You will be held legally accountable for anything that you do. There is no Mad Max world.
As I mentioned in the introduction, freeze dried food is expensive — very expensive. How many preppers are out there cutting corners thinking, "Instead of buying a freeze dryer, I'll just dehydrate this food myself, add a couple oxygen absorbers, and throw it in a mylar bag" not realizing that they are potentially creating a botulism rich environment? When I first wrote this article, that was just a thought, but then I later had a friend tell me they planned on doing just that! And you won’t be able to smell or taste botulism either. Are you going to risk buying food in an unmarked mylar bag from someone you don't know?
Who is going to accept your gold and silver bars and coins? How are you going to make change? Are you going to accept some random person's gold and silver? How will you know whether it is real? Did you spend $1,000 on an electronic testing device?
Many people are under the illusion that their preps are unknown. Gunbroker gives the ATF access to all of their user searches. All the email order confirmations of your gear and purchases are accessible by the NSA through major email providers. In fact, Yahoo gave them direct access (cached version).
The USG has records of every purchase you make online, with a credit card. Any purchase receipt sent to your email has been hoovered up at the backbone network level by interception facilities like room 641A. The NSA has a Total Inventory System (TIS) that tracks every item owned by every single American.
Back in the 1990's, the USG could re-constitute passwords just from listening to your keystrokes and having some record of what was typed. It turned out that the unique sounds could be identified if they had even a small sample of what was written. That means that any sample obtained would be sufficient to decode your passwords later unless you combined them with a physical hardware key. Phones can listen to you any time now. But that isn't even necessary now, because Intel ME allows remote access to your machine on demand as well. AMD has their own version too. And BadBIOS can transmit viruses to air-gapped computers via sound alone (cached article).
Anything you plug into your electrical outlets in your home has a unique signature, which can be identified by your smart meter and the power company. The power company can tell what kind of electric blender you use and has detailed databases that track everyone's use. That means the government, the electric company, and any other corporation that buys that data, can get a detailed picture of every device in your home. This research paper already talks about "inducing" customer behavior based on household electronic signature data. Want freedom? Better get a battery! And WIFI can be used to identify where you are located physically as well as create a map of your home (cached paper).
How much ammo is enough? Many people say you need 10,000 rounds per gun. Let's say you've got an AR15, a 9mm pistol, and an AK-47. At 57 cents a round for 10,000 PMC 55g 5.56 rounds, you'd pay $5,700. At 30 cents a round, for 10,000 9mm FMJ 115g PMC rounds, you'd pay $3,000. At 55 cents a round for 7.26x39 you'd pay $5,500 for 10,000 rounds. You're looking at $14,200 excluding tax. That is only for the cheapest FMJ ammo. Prices for self defense ammo are going to be far higher. Now that doesn't include ammo for training either. That is insanely expensive and unobtainable for the average person.
Strangely, the same prepping "influencers" that say you need 10,000 rounds per gun also say that you only need three or four magazines in an unexpected firefight and if you need more rounds then you're in over your head and likely going to die anyway. So, which one is it then?
How much time do you spend training at the range? Most instructors say once a quarter is the absolute minimum to retain muscle memory. Do you take refresher safety courses or at least watch safety videos?
Are you even physically fit? Do you have body armor for yourself or your loved ones? You're looking at another $2k, at least. Are you aware that anyone who purchases body armor in the U.S. is put on an FBI watch list?
And let's talk about your AR15. Do you have an extra lower parts kit? What about an extra BCG or bolt? What about gas rings? What happens when there's no supply chain for any of that? Are you able to create your own springs, pins, and detents? Can you mill out your own receivers? Do you have the necessary tools to fix it? Do you have a vice, roll punch set, starter punch set, regular punch set, castle nut punch, castle nut key, torque wrench, calipers, and a brass hammer? Where is the line between consumer and "prepper" in your life?
Can you sharpen your knives? Have you spent the time to learn that skill? It's definitely not rocket science, but there is an initial learning curve. Can you hunt, trap, and fish? Do you have all the gear for that? In the Depression era, deer population was severely impacted from hunting, because people were so desperate for food. How long do you think they will last if there is a massive famine? How will you test for Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in those deer and elk if there is no shipping or supply chain?
What about information? Do you have a copy of Wikipedia downloaded? Do you have a Faraday bag that can protect that information and your other electronics? Do you have a small library with the right books? What about manuals for all your important gear? Do you have them printed out? Laminated?
Do you have an inverter, charge controller, and solar panels?
What about your water source? If you live in the city, do you know how long your water will flow without electricity? Does your sewer line have a back-flow prevention valve?
Do you have an indoor garden large enough to support you and your family? How will you filter the rain water that is polluted with PFAS and other chemicals? What happens when you run out of filters? Do you have the money for a well? How good is your local water table? Do you have extra water filters? Do you have a water filter logbook?
Are you aware of the bacteria in your soil? 80% of the topsoil has already been depleted of minerals and good bacteria. Are you in a location that will be safe long-term when it comes to potential wet bulb temperatures? That might not affect you today, but it might affect your children.
Do you know what planting zone you are in?
What about the lithium ion batteries you bought? What happens when they run out? Are you aware that they are a fire hazard? Are you storing them in fire-proof bags? Are you periodically checking whether your lithium batteries have gone bad?
How are you going to get CR2032 batteries for your rifle scope when there is no supply chain? Are you going to risk getting a tritium scope? What if there is a fire and your scope creates a radioactive hazard zone ruining all your belongings? The manual for one popular tritium scope says that a fire makes the tritium radiation 10,000 times more dangerous. How many times is your portable lithium battery going to re-charge before it dies? Without real scientific and engineering knowledge, there is no chance at maintaining, or supporting, modern technologies. Do you have those skills?
How much time have you spent on your physical and spiritual development?
How old are you? What is the point of prepping at 70+ years? How much longer do you really need to survive? Shouldn't you be out enjoying your remaining years of life, not building bunkers?
Living off the supply chain is incredibly difficult and probably a fantasy for 80% of preppers. Go watch the homestead YouTube stars with lots of money and resources who quit the homesteading lifestyle because it was just too much work. There are plenty of them. The Townsends YouTube channel seems to more accurately portray what a real "prepper" life would be like if the supply chain collapsed; we would be living like people did in the 1700's. In fact, if you look closely enough at "off grid" people, you'll come to the conclusion that it is actually a code word for "poor," in many cases.
How will you travel if there is no gas?
Are you prepped for when your multi-million dollar compound in the forest gets burned down by a forest fire? There is evidence that many fires have been started by DEWs and many others by mentally unstable arsonists. In 2020, I rented a small mother in law unit, in a very upscale area foothill area. The area was littered with multi-million dollar mansions. A young foreigner set a fire 12 miles away and tried to burn down the neighboring area. Aside from the initial photo, no details were ever provided about the incident afterward. It was basically covered up. Later, fires from Santa Cruz were so bad that I was almost evacuated. Are you ready to leave your home quickly? What would you take if you only had 5 minutes to leave?
When BLM riots were happening across the country, people started posting on Twitter about breaking into homes in rich neighborhoods and causing havoc. Are you prepared for a mob at your front door?
How much of your preps are actually perishable and need to be cycled out every so many years?
What is your plan for when your neighbors find out that you're prepared and they aren't? One man in Texas refused to help his neighbors during the 2021 winter freeze when they discovered he was the only one with electricity, water, and food. After the power was restored, the entire neighborhood turned against him. He lost all social standing in his community. They simply expected him to give away everything for free. You could see this as pure entitlement, mob mentality taking over, or survival desperation. Either way, when the dust had settled he was the "bad guy" in the eyes of his neighbors.
Look at your neighborhood fast food. It's full of pesticides, preservatives, nano-lipid coatings, birth control chemicals, added sugar, bio-engineered mysteries, toxic chemicals, MSG, added salt and more. Many cities add toxic fluoride to the water supply. The purchasing power of you dollar goes down every year.
All radio band activity and communication is stored, analyzed, sorted, and flagged in real time by the USG. Even simple ham operators can triangulate signals to find people transmitting. The USG can pinpoint your location in real-time and determine your identity via your voice-print. Is your Baofeng sitting in the garage going to work when the local repeaters in your area go down? Do they have backup solar power? Did you read this extensive comment about how Baofeng's are potentially dangerous? You need at the very least a General ham license and a HF radio. Do you have a low power option like the Lab599 TX-500 or the Elecraft KX2 that can be run on solar?
Did you get a sexy "rugged" Lab599 TX-500 only to find out that if you use a EFHW antenna you'll blow out its audio chip? See this discussion and this one too.
Many preppers today say, "Oh I don't need a license, because the FCC says it's permissible to transmit in an emergency." Yes, it is permissible to transmit, "to provide essential communication needs in connection with the immediate safety of human life and immediate protection of property when normal communication systems are not available." But if you don't have a license and haven't studied, and practiced, for several months then how are you going to know what you're doing? You won't know how to operate CW, APRS, Winlink, IRLP, FT8, or even if you should be on upper or lower side band for your voice communication. Does your radio need a resonant antenna or do you need an antenna tuner? Can your radio measure the SWR or do you need a separate meter?
Radio is such a broad field that you can literally spend decades exploring it. And it's a great capability to add to your toolbox of knowledge. But are you looking at it as a skill or just another thing to purchase and forget about? The latter isn't prepping at all. That's just consumerism.
Any audio recording over 1 minute made close enough to a high voltage power line is location-identifiable by both the government and the power company. Watch this YouTube video for more info on that.